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VSϑ ( T F P ek 1 9 7 8 - 2 0 0 9 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 - 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 9 ( l n T L 0 . 5 6 9 * * * 0 . 5 6 9 * * * 0 . 5 3 1 * * * 0 . 4 9 9 * * * 0 . 5 6 8 * * * ( 2 5 . 2 0 ) ( 9 . 2 4 ) ( 1 3 . 9 9 ) ( 1 2 . 7 5 ) ( 1 6 . 8 9 ) ( l n T S 0 . 1 1 3 0 . 4 8 4 * * * - 0 . 0 3 3 - 0 . 3 1 0 * 0 . 4 7 7 * * * ( 1 . 3 4 ) ( 3 . 3 8 ) ( - 0 . 2 9 ) ( 1 . 7 8 ) ( 3 . 1 2 ) ( T F P * l n T L - 0 . 5 3 2 * * * - 0 . 4 9 0 * * * - 0 . 5 1 0 * * * - 0 . 4 6 5 * * * - 0 . 5 3 8 * * * ( - 2 4 . 6 3 ) ( - 8 . 5 0 ) ( - 1 4 . 7 6 ) ( - 1 2 . 5 6 ) ( - 1 7 . 4 6 ) ( T F P * l n T S - 0 . 1 1 3 - 0 . 3 8 7 * * * 0 . 0 1 2 0 . 3 1 5 * * - 0 . 4 5 9 * * * ( - 1 . 4 4 ) ( - 3 . 1 7 ) ( 0 . 1 2 ) ( - 1 . 9 7 ) ( - 3 . 1 5 ) H a n s e n h( p - v a l u e ) 0 . 7 2 2 0 . 2 1 6 0 . 1 0 7 0 . 5 6 8 0 . 4 0 6 F ~ϑ 2 9 1 . 6 7 3 8 . 9 9 1 1 0 . 6 5 6 5 . 7 6 1 7 9 . 4 4 KmfW'`
NX[(W]_ ُQ N!khfbNsQNNN~g[~NmXq_Tv[~g/f3zePS`v0
h5 NN~g[~NmXq_Tv3zeP'`h = 1 \ * R O M A N I I
VSϑ ( g ek 1 9 7 8 - 2 0 0 9 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 - 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 9 ( l n T L 5 . 0 3 1 * * * 4 . 2 1 1 * * 2 . 4 2 8 * 6 . 9 6 0 * * * 5 . 8 7 0 * * * ( 4 . 2 1 ) ( 2 . 0 1 ) ( 1 . 8 3 ) ( 6 . 2 9 ) ( 7 . 3 0 ) ( l n T S 6 . 2 8 7 * * 3 . 5 5 8 - 0 . 8 8 3 - 1 . 5 4 6 8 . 2 3 2 * * ( 2 . 2 0 ) ( 0 . 7 3 ) ( - 0 . 1 9 ) ( - 0 . 5 2 ) ( 2 . 4 4 ) ( ( g * l n T L ) - 0 . 5 0 9 * * * - 0 . 5 4 4 * * * - 0 . 5 1 6 * * * - 0 . 5 2 7 * * * - 0 . 4 9 9 * * * ( - 1 0 . 7 5 ) ( - 1 6 . 2 8 ) ( - 1 8 . 8 8 ) ( - 1 0 . 8 6 ) ( - 8 . 6 0 ) ( ( g * l n T S ) - 0 . 2 5 4 * * - 0 . 5 0 2 * * * 0 . 0 5 0 6 0 . 1 9 3 - 0 . 6 1 6 * * * ( - 2 . 0 5 ) ( - 4 . 2 8 ) ( 0 . 4 2 ) ( 1 . 0 5 ) ( - 2 . 7 0 ) m 1 ( p - v a l u e ) 0 . 0 0 0 0 . 0 1 2 0 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 0 8 0 . 0 3 1 m 2 ( p - v a l u e ) 0 . 1 3 0 0 . 2 4 9 0 . 4 3 1 0 . 1 8 9 0 . 6 6 9 H a n s e n h( p - v a l u e ) 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 2 2 0 0 . 1 4 6 0 . 3 2 3 0 . 2 6 8 F ~ϑ 1 9 6 . 2 1 2 9 1 . 9 7 4 7 7 . 6 7 1 3 7 . 5 2 1 6 5 . 5 4 N 9 0 0 1 5 0 1 8 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 l( 1 ) :NMQ]wQSϑǏY[v0OOP] (W0O-NReQNc o l l a p s e y[]wQSϑۏLc6R( 2 ) :NO|~0Of:N3zeP gHe 0OǏ z-NǑ(uNNek3zeP0O bSQf:y!jWǏ[h SNۏL~gRg0\h6 Nh3 ۏL[gqRg bNSs (W~NmlRThT glR!jW-N Tyb__vVR_|pe(W&{S
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B a c k u s , D a v i d K . a n d P a t r i c k J . K e h o e , 1 9 9 2 , I n t e r n a t i o n a l E v i d e n c e o n t h e H i s t o r i c a l P r o p e r t i e s o f B u s i n e s s C y c l e s , A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c s R e v i e w , V o l . 8 2 , N o . 4 , P P . 8 6 4 8 8 8 .
C o e l l i , T . J . , R a o , D . S . P . , C h r i s t o p h e r J . O ' D o n n e l l a n d B a t t e s e , G . E . , 2 0 0 6 , A n I n t r o d u c t i o n t o E f f i c i e n c y a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y A n a l y s i s , S p r i n g e r p u b l i s h e r s .
D e n i s o n , E . F . , 1 9 6 7 , W h y G r o w t h R a t e s D i f f e r : P o s t - W a r E x p e r i e n c e i n N i n e W e s t e r n C o u n t r i e s , B r o o k -
i n g s I n s t i t u t i o n , W a s h i n g t o n , D C .
F r a n k , M . W . , 2 0 0 5 , I n c o m e I n e q u a l i t y a n d E c o n o m i c G r o w t h i n t h e U . S . : A P a n e l C o i n t e g r a t i o n A p p r o a c h , W o r k i n g P a p e r , S a m H o u s t o n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y .
G r o s s m a n , G . M . , H e l p m a n , E . , 1 9 9 1 , I n n o v a t i o n a n d G r o w t h i n t h e G l o b a l E c o n o m y , M I T P r e s s , C a m b r i d -
g e , U S A .
L S i n g h . , 2 0 0 4 , T e c h n o l o g i c a l P r o g r e s s S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y G r o w t h i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g S e c t o r o f S o u t h K o r e a , T h e I n s t i t u t e o f W o r l d E c o n o m y , S e o u l N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y .
L u c a s , R . E . , 1 9 9 3 , M a k i n g a M i r a c l e " , E c o n o m e t r i c a , 6 1 , 2 5 1 - 2 7 2 .
M a d d i s o n , A . , 1 9 8 7 , G r o w t h a n d S l o w d o w n i n A d v a n c e d C a p i t a l i s t E c o n o m i e s : T e c h n i q u e s o f Q u a n t i t a -
t i v e A s s e s s m e n t " , J . E c o n . L i t e r a t . , 2 5 , 6 4 9 - 6 9 8 .
M P e n e d e r . , 2 0 0 2 , S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e a n d A g g r e g a t e G r o w t h , W I F O W o r k i n g P a p e r . A u s t r i a n I n s t i t u t e o f E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h , V i e n n a .
M T i m m e r a n d A S z i r m a i . , 2 0 0 0 , P r o d u c t i v i t y G r o w t h i n A s i a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g : T h e S t r u c t u r a l B o n u s H y p o t h e s i s E x a m i n e d . S t r u c t u r a l C h a n g e a n d E c o n o m i c D y n a m i c s , V o l ( 1 ) , p p . 3 7 1 ~ 3 9 2 .
N e l s o n , R . R . , P a c k , H . , 1 9 9 9 , T h e A s i a n M i r a c l e a n d M o d e r n G r o w t h T h e o r y , E c o n . J . 1 0 9 , 4 1 6 ^4 3 6 .
P h i l i p p e A g h i o n , P h i l i p p e B a c c h e t t a , R o m a i n R a n c i e r e , K e n n e t h R o g o f f , 2 0 0 6 , E x c h a n g e R a t e V o l a t i l i t y a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y G r o w t h : T h e R o l e o f F i n a n c i a l D e v e l o p m e n t , N B E R W o r k i n g P a p e r , 1 2 1 1 7 .
A n E m p i r i c a l S t u d y o n t h e E f f e c t s o f I n d u s t r i a l S t r u c t u r e o n E c o n o m i c G r o w t h a n d F l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e C a s e o f C h i n a
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S c h o o l o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n S h a n g h a i U n i v e r s i t y o f F i n a n c e a n d E c o n o m i c s S c h o o l o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n S h a n g h a i U n i v e r s i t y o f F i n a n c e a n d E c o n o m i c s T o p 5 0 0 E n t e r p r i s e s R e s e a r c h C e n t e r S h a n g h a i U n i v e r s i t y o f F i n a n c e a n d E c o n o m i c s
A b s t r a c t : T h e a d j u s t m e n t o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e i s c u r r e n t l y a k e y i s s u e i n C h i n a , h o w e v e r , t h e e f f e c t s o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e o n e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i s n o t c o n s i s t e n t i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e s . I n t h i s p a p e r , w e d e v e l o p a n e w m e a s u r e m e n t o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e f r o m t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n a n d o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e a n d s p e c i f y a f i x e d e f f e c t m o d e l t o e x p l o r e t h e t w o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . F u t h e r m o r e , w e c o n s i d e r t h e m e c h a n i s m o f t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n a n d o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e o n e c o n o m i c f l u c t u a t i o n s . T h e r e s u l t s s h o w e d t h a t t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h h a s a s t e a d y r e l a t i o n s h i p a n d t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h h a s a n u n c e r t a i n r e l a t i o n s h i p , b u t t h e i r i m p a c t m e c h a n i s m o n e c o n o m i c g r o w t h m e c h a n i s m a r e t h e s a m e . T h e e f f e c t o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e o n e c o n o m i c f l u c t u a t i o n s i s n o t a b l e , e s p e c i a l l y o n t h e u n p r e d i c t a b l e c y c l i c a l f l u c t u a t i o n s , b u t t h e i m p a c t m e c h a n i s m s a r e d i f f e r e n t b e t w e e n t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e a n d t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . T h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e i s a n i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f e c o n o m i c f l u c t u a t i o n s , b u t t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e c a n a v o i d t h i s f l u c t u a t i o n . O v e r a l l , t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e t o e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t i s m u c h g r e a t e r t h a n t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e . I n t h e p o l i c y m a k i n g p r o c e s s , t h e g o v e r n m e n t s h o u l d g i v e m o r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o t h e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e r a t h e r t o t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e .
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